Chicago has always been a city built around the next thing before anyone was entirely certain what the next thing would become. The railroads did not arrive with a PowerPoint presentation explaining that Chicago would become the transportation capital of the continent. The stockyards were not conceived as a lesson in industrial agglomeration. The great factories that spread across the region were not part of a campaign to establish a globally competitive advanced-manufacturing cluster. Chicago grew because transportation, capital, labor, engineering and ambition collided here with unusual force, and once they did, entire industries began arranging themselves around the city. By 2035, Chicago may be attempting that trick again, only this time the city knows it. On the South Side, the Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park represents one of the more intriguing economic bets Chicago has made in decades. Its importance is not simply that quantum computing sounds futuristic, although it certainly helps; economic-development announcements rarely suffer from having words like “quantum” attached to them.
What makes the project more consequential is the strategy behind it. Chicago and Illinois are trying to build an ecosystem around a technology before the industry itself has fully matured. Instead of watching another city develop a dominant technology cluster and spending the following twenty years trying to reproduce it, the region is attempting to establish the infrastructure, talent, research relationships, suppliers and capital necessary for an industry whose eventual shape remains uncertain. That is a very different kind of economic development, and it may offer a preview of what Chicago's economy could look like in 2035.
The most plausible version of that future is not a Chicago dominated by quantum computing, artificial intelligence or any other single fashionable technology. Chicago has rarely been a one-industry town, and there is little reason it should aspire to become one now. Its advantage is almost the opposite. Chicago already possesses a collection of enormous, complicated industries: manufacturing, logistics, food production, healthcare, professional services, construction and transportation. Around them exists another economy of smaller manufacturers, contractors, restaurants, retailers, service companies and neighborhood entrepreneurs.
What happens over the next decade may depend on how effectively new technologies become embedded inside those existing systems. That is why quantum computing matters even if most Chicagoans never knowingly interact with a quantum computer. The larger opportunity is not simply the machine but the ecosystem around the machine: the engineers who design components, the manufacturers who produce them, the software companies that build applications, the professional firms that advise those businesses, the investors who finance them and the workers who eventually turn experimental technology into a functioning industry. “The cities that benefit most from the next technological era will not necessarily be the ones that invent every breakthrough. They will be the ones that know how to turn breakthroughs into industries.” — Gaurav Mohindra
That distinction is worth dwelling on because cities have become remarkably fond of describing themselves as technology hubs. Almost every large metropolitan area now has an innovation district, a startup ecosystem and several buildings with exposed ductwork where coffee is unusually expensive. Actual industrial ecosystems are harder. They require customers, suppliers, specialized workers, infrastructure, capital and institutions that reinforce one another over decades. Chicago happens to have many of those ingredients already, and nowhere is that more obvious than in manufacturing. For much of the twentieth century, manufacturing helped define metropolitan Chicago. The popular story is that globalization and automation swept that economy away. The reality is more interesting. Manufacturing remains deeply embedded in the region, but the nature of manufacturing is changing. A factory in 2035 is likely to be as much a computing environment as a mechanical one. Artificial intelligence will monitor production lines and anticipate equipment failures.
Machine vision will inspect products. Robotics will perform increasingly sophisticated tasks. Digital models will allow engineers to test production changes before altering physical systems. Additive manufacturing and new materials will change what can be produced economically and in what quantities. In that world, Chicago's industrial inheritance stops looking like a relic and starts looking like infrastructure. The region already knows how to make things. It already has suppliers, engineers, machinists, industrial property, transportation connections and customers. Add a new layer of computation to that base and advanced manufacturing becomes less a replacement for Chicago's old economy than an evolution of it. “Chicago's industrial history matters because knowledge does not disappear when a factory changes. The region has spent generations learning how to solve physical problems at scale. Combine that knowledge with modern computing and you have the foundation for an entirely new industrial economy.” — Gaurav Mohindra
The same logic applies to logistics, an industry so fundamental to Chicago that it can be difficult to notice precisely because it is everywhere. Chicago became powerful because it learned how to move physical things extraordinarily well. Grain, livestock, steel, consumer goods and people all passed through a transportation system that connected the interior of the country to national and global markets. That geography still matters, but by 2035 the intelligence sitting above the transportation network may matter nearly as much as the tracks, roads, warehouses and runways beneath it. Logistics is becoming a data business. Artificial intelligence can forecast demand, optimize routes, manage warehouse inventory, predict disruptions and coordinate increasingly complex supply chains. Sensors can follow products from factory floor to distribution center to customer, while automated warehouses can operate with a precision that would have seemed mildly supernatural to a logistics manager thirty years ago. Chicago therefore has an opportunity to become more than the place where freight moves. It can become one of the places where the technology that determines how freight moves is developed, tested and commercialized. That is a recurring theme in the Chicago of 2035: old industries acquiring new nervous systems.
Artificial intelligence is likely to accelerate that process, but Chicago's relationship with AI may prove more interesting than the familiar race to produce the next celebrated technology company. The cities that benefit most from AI may not be those that produce the most chatbots. They may be the ones with the largest concentration of expensive real-world problems for AI to solve, and Chicago has an almost luxurious supply of those. A manufacturer wants to reduce downtime. A hospital wants to predict patient demand. A freight company wants to optimize thousands of daily movements. A food producer wants to reduce waste. A construction company wants to forecast delays.
An accounting firm wants to automate routine analysis. A law firm wants to search millions of documents in seconds. These are not theoretical applications. They are ordinary business problems occurring thousands of times across a metropolitan economy. This is where Chicago's economic diversity becomes an advantage. For years, the region's lack of dependence on a single industry has been discussed primarily as a form of resilience: when one sector declines, another can cushion the blow. By 2035, diversity could serve a more ambitious purpose. It could become the mechanism through which innovation spreads. Instead of technology existing as a separate sector of the Chicago economy, technology could increasingly become the connective tissue running through nearly all of it.
Food production offers a particularly Chicago example. The city that once became synonymous with stockyards sits at the intersection of some of the richest agricultural territory in the world, major food companies, transportation infrastructure, manufacturing expertise and a huge consumer market. Now add biotechnology, artificial intelligence, precision fermentation, automated processing, new proteins and advanced packaging. Suddenly food looks less like an old Chicago industry and more like a technology sector that happens to produce things people can eat. Healthcare is moving in a similar direction. Chicago already has major hospitals, research universities, pharmaceutical and medical companies, laboratories and a large healthcare workforce.
The challenge has never been whether the region possesses medical expertise; the challenge has been turning enough of that expertise into scalable businesses. Over the next decade, the lines separating healthcare, biotechnology, computing and engineering will continue to blur. AI-assisted drug discovery, diagnostics, medical devices and computational biology will produce companies that do not fit neatly into traditional categories, and quantum technology could eventually deepen that convergence further. “The most important Chicago companies of 2035 may be difficult to classify. A company could simultaneously be a software business, a manufacturer and a life-sciences company. That convergence is where Chicago's economic diversity becomes a competitive advantage.” — Gaurav Mohindra
That future would also change an industry that rarely appears in breathless discussions of technological revolutions: professional services. Chicago is full of lawyers, accountants, consultants, bankers, insurers and corporate advisers. Their work is particularly exposed to generative AI because so much of it involves producing, reviewing and interpreting information. Some tasks will disappear. Others will become dramatically faster. But technology may also make the best professional firms more productive. A lawyer who spends less time searching documents can spend more time constructing an argument. An accountant who automates routine analysis can spend more time interpreting the result. A consultant who can model scenarios in minutes rather than days can spend more time deciding which scenario actually makes sense. The billable hour may object, but history is seldom sentimental about business models. What matters for Chicago is that the city does not have to invent a professional-services economy on which to apply these technologies. It already has one. As with manufacturing and logistics, the economic opportunity lies partly in taking an enormous established industry and making it considerably more productive.
And all of this digital transformation will require an astonishing amount of physical construction. That is one of the paradoxes of the supposedly weightless technology economy: it is remarkably heavy. Data centers require land and enormous amounts of electricity. Laboratories require specialized buildings. Semiconductor and quantum facilities require extraordinary infrastructure. Advanced manufacturers need production space. Workers need housing. New companies eventually require offices, even if the precise number of days employees will occupy them remains the subject of endless corporate anthropology. The Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park makes this physical reality impossible to miss. There is something almost too symbolically convenient about building a quantum technology campus on former industrial land on Chicago's South Side. One era of industry occupied the site; another is being invited to grow there. Steel to quantum in roughly a century is the sort of metaphor a city would invent if history had not been considerate enough to provide it. Yet the physical location also raises a much harder question: who gets connected to the new economy?
Transportation will help determine the answer. Chicago's transit, commuter rail, highways and airports are not merely infrastructure assets; they determine which workers can reach which jobs, which businesses can reach which customers and which neighborhoods can participate in economic growth. A world-class research campus is less economically transformative if reaching it from large parts of the metropolitan area is difficult. The same is true of advanced manufacturing facilities, logistics centers, hospitals and new commercial districts. By 2035, transportation policy and economic policy will be nearly impossible to separate. So will housing policy. If Chicago succeeds in creating high-value employment but fails to build enough housing near jobs and transportation, part of the economic benefit will be consumed by higher costs and longer commutes. If it creates technology districts disconnected from surrounding neighborhoods, it risks producing islands of prosperity rather than a metropolitan growth engine. The great economic question of 2035 will therefore not simply be whether Chicago managed to attract advanced industries. It will be whether ordinary Chicagoans can physically and economically reach them.
That brings us to the least glamorous and perhaps most important part of the 2035 economy: neighborhood entrepreneurship. Big technology announcements are easy to photograph. Small-business ecosystems are not. Yet a genuine economic boom is rarely confined to the companies that caused it. Engineers need restaurants. Laboratories need contractors. Manufacturers need suppliers. Startups need accountants and lawyers. Growing companies need furniture, cleaning services, construction crews, transportation providers, caterers and hundreds of other businesses whose founders will never appear on the cover of a technology magazine. This secondary economy is where technological growth becomes metropolitan growth. “A technology ecosystem cannot remain an island and still call itself an ecosystem. The real measure of success is whether innovation creates opportunities for suppliers, contractors, service businesses and entrepreneurs who may never work directly in the technology that started the growth.” — Gaurav Mohindra
That may be the central test for Chicago over the next nine years. The city does not need ten separate economic strategies for ten separate industries. It needs a system in which the industries reinforce one another. Quantum computing can strengthen advanced manufacturing. Advanced manufacturing can create new tools for healthcare and food production. Artificial intelligence can increase productivity across all of them. Logistics can connect their supply chains. Professional services can finance, advise and protect the companies that emerge. Construction can build the physical infrastructure they require. Transportation can connect workers to opportunity. Neighborhood entrepreneurs can turn large institutional investments into thousands of smaller economic opportunities. Seen this way, the future Chicago economy looks less like a collection of sectors and more like a network, and networks are difficult to copy. A competitor can build a laboratory. It can offer a tax incentive. It can recruit a company. It can establish an accelerator and order the obligatory tasteful furniture. It is considerably harder to reproduce a metropolitan economy containing major research universities, national laboratories, global corporations, manufacturing expertise, financial institutions, hospitals, freight infrastructure, two major airports, a vast professional-services sector and millions of potential workers and customers. Chicago already has most of the pieces. Its problem has often been connecting them.
That is what makes the quantum park interesting beyond quantum computing itself. The experiment is not merely technological; it is institutional. Can Chicago deliberately assemble researchers, infrastructure, companies, investors, suppliers, government and workers around an industry before that industry's geography is settled? If it can, the model could extend far beyond quantum. “Chicago should not spend the next decade trying to become another city's version of a technology hub. Its opportunity is much more interesting: to build a technology economy that is inseparable from manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, food and the physical industries that already make Chicago distinctive.” — Gaurav Mohindra There is an appealing confidence in that idea because it does not require Chicago to pretend to be somewhere else. Chicago does not need the mythology of Silicon Valley. It has its own mythology, and considerably better architecture. What it needs is execution.
Nine years is long enough to change the direction of a metropolitan economy and short enough to expose every weakness in an economic-development strategy. Between now and 2035, the region will need to train thousands of workers for jobs that are only beginning to exist. Universities and laboratories will need to commercialize more research. Investors will need to finance companies through the difficult years between invention and scale. Manufacturers will need to modernize. Transit and infrastructure will need investment. Housing will need to follow employment growth. Entrepreneurs will need easier paths into the industries forming around them. And Chicago will need to become better at keeping the companies it creates. That last point may matter more than attracting famous companies from elsewhere. The strongest economic ecosystems compound. A researcher starts a company. The company succeeds. Early employees leave to start other companies. Suppliers move nearby. Investors develop expertise. Universities attract more researchers. Customers arrive because the technology is there. Workers arrive because the companies are there. More companies arrive because the workers are there. Eventually, the cluster begins reproducing itself. That is how economic geography becomes stubborn, and Chicago's wager is that it can start that process now, particularly in industries that combine computation with the physical economy.
If it works, the Chicago of 2035 may not look radically different from the city of 2026. The trains will still run through it. Planes will still stack up over O'Hare. Factories will still make things. Hospitals will still treat patients. Lawyers will still find reasons to send lengthy emails. Restaurants will open. Construction cranes will move across the skyline. Trucks will carry goods through the region. The difference will be underneath. Factories will be more computational. Logistics will be more intelligent. Medicine will be more data-driven. Food will be more engineered. Professional services will be more automated. Transportation will become more integrated with economic planning. And somewhere on the South Side, an industrial site once associated with the economy Chicago mastered in the twentieth century may be helping create an industry the world is only beginning to understand. That would be a very Chicago kind of reinvention: not abandoning the old economy, but teaching it new tricks.
Chicago has already lived through several economic identities: trading center, railroad capital, industrial powerhouse, corporate headquarters city and global services metropolis. Each transformation seemed improbable until, eventually, it seemed inevitable. The next one is not inevitable. It will require unusually patient coordination in a city and state whose political traditions have not always made “patient coordination” the first phrase that comes to mind. But the opportunity is real. Chicago enters the next decade with something many aspiring technology centers would spend fortunes to acquire: an enormous real economy onto which new technology can be grafted. The students who will run its laboratories are already in school. The entrepreneurs who will build its companies may already be working inside existing Chicago businesses. The factories that will use its technologies are operating today. The neighborhoods that could benefit from the next expansion are already waiting. The infrastructure decisions are being made now. The investments are beginning now. The ecosystem is either being built now, or it isn't.
So after quantum computing, advanced manufacturing, logistics, artificial intelligence, food production, healthcare and life sciences, professional services, construction, transportation and neighborhood entrepreneurship, perhaps the final subject in this series is not an industry at all. It is Chicago's capacity to act on what it already knows. The city has the universities. It has the companies. It has the workers. It has the infrastructure. It has the industrial memory. And, unusually, it has an opportunity to position itself around several emerging technologies before the winners and losers have been completely decided. Chicago has spent much of its history becoming important first and explaining why afterward. This time, it has the luxury—and the burden—of seeing the opportunity coming.
What would have to happen between 2026 and 2035 for Chicago to enter another genuine economic golden age?
Originally Posted: https://gauravmohindrachicago.com/chicago-2035-ten-industries-that-could-reshape-metro-economy/
